Britain’s present wave of Covid-19 instances seems to be peaking at a decrease stage than earlier outbreaks of the Omicron variant of the illness, researchers have revealed.
The information is encouraging – although scientists have additionally warned {that a} additional wave of the illness might sweep the nation earlier than the tip of the yr. “We should be vigilant and monitor the information with nice care, on a regular basis,” stated Professor Mark Woolhouse, of Edinburgh College.
In keeping with final week’s ONS survey, Covid case numbers have flattened out or are falling in 5 of 9 English areas, in addition to in Northern Eire and Scotland. On the identical time, youngsters now have the bottom prevalence of the illness for some weeks.
And whereas instances are nonetheless rising in 50-69 yr olds, there was a fall in prevalence amongst over-70s. “Hopefully that may quickly be mirrored by a fall in hospitalisations,” added Woolhouse.
But when the short-term prospects of avoiding a brand new wave of Covid-19 instances look pretty promising, longer-term forecasts are much less reassuring due to the uncertainties concerned. “The issue is that we’ve now obtained a soup of round 300 Covid-19 variants in existence,” stated Professor Andrew Lee, of Sheffield College. “On the identical time, completely different populations have gotten various ranges of immunity to Covid-19. That makes it actually troublesome to foretell how future waves are going to behave.”
Scientists have additionally warned that the nation faces the prospect of a parallel flu epidemic this winter, one which could possibly be fuelled by low immunity ranges in a inhabitants that has misplaced safety throughout Covid pandemic restrictions. This was raised final week when it was revealed that flu instances had climbed in England – although ranges are comparatively low general.
Nonetheless, these fears have been tempered by Professor Francois Balloux, of College School London. “The one piece of fine information is that the flu vaccine that’s now being given seems to be rather well matched to the strains which have begun to flow into within the inhabitants. Which means it ought to present good safety and maintain down hospitalisations.”
Predictions about future outbreaks of ailments like Covid or flu wanted to be handled with care, added Woolhouse. “This time final yr, after we had fairly excessive ranges of the Delta variant of Covid-19, professional after professional predicted actually big waves of the illness would sweep Britain within the autumn. And it by no means occurred.”
As a substitute, the nation was struck by a very new variant, Omicron, which affected unprecedented numbers of individuals final winter. New sub-variants of Omicron have since appeared and these are circulating with one model, Omicron BA 2.75.2, being seen as a severe potential risk. “Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless comparatively uncommon within the UK,” added Woolhouse.
However, scientists settle for that the chance of a very new variant, one with extreme pathogenic impacts, might seem at any time. “So long as Covid stays delicate for most individuals, and doesn’t overwhelm well being techniques, governments will be capable of trip the wave,” added Lee. “But when we get a extra pathogenic, extreme variant then that may dictate a really completely different response. And that is still a threat, no doubt.”
Balloux stated the prospect of a deadly new variant showing stays scientists’ best worry about Covid and would require fixed surveillance by well being authorities and medical doctors, he instructed the Observer. “Nonetheless, except one thing horrible occurs and a lethal new variant seems, I feel by way of Covid, issues ought to be higher than final winter and the winter earlier than,” he stated.
