with shock, because it seems to argue that the base-rate fallacy
is, in actual fact, not a fallacy. Within the context of COVID-19 vaccines, the base-rate fallacy is usually described because the phantasm that vaccines are ineffective as a result of, in extremely vaccinated populations, nearly all of COVID-19 instances happen amongst vaccinated individuals. For instance, if a inhabitants is 99% vaccinated in opposition to a hypothetical virus and 51% of contaminated people have been vaccinated, the base-rate fallacy (falsely) implies that the vaccine is ineffective at stopping an infection. After all, if the vaccine was actually ineffective, we might count on about 99% of contaminated people to have been vaccinated.
Kampf stories the proportions of people that had been vaccinated in three teams of COVID-19 instances, however in every occasion fails to report the vaccinated proportion of the entire inhabitants; with out such context, the proportion of individuals with COVID-19 who had been vaccinated has little that means. Though Kampf modified the implication of the base-rate fallacy—from vaccines are ineffective, to it isn’t justified to disapprove of people who select to not be vaccinated—Kampf’s piece nonetheless captures the essence of the base-rate fallacy. Would Kampf equally argue that as a result of most street deaths don’t contain drunk drivers, acknowledging the harms of drink driving on public well being will not be justified?
We declare no competing pursuits.
References
- 1.
COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated will not be justified.
Lancet. 2021; 3981871
- 2.
The bottom-rate fallacy in likelihood judgments.
Acta Psychol (Amst). 1980; 44: 211-233
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Revealed: 12 February 2022
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Linked Articles
- COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified
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In the USA and Germany, high-level officials have used the term pandemic of the unvaccinated, suggesting that people who have been vaccinated are not relevant in the epidemiology of COVID-19. Officials’ use of this phrase might have encouraged one scientist to claim that “the unvaccinated threaten the vaccinated for COVID-19”.1 But this view is far too simple.
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